Tour of Flanders Prediction

Here we are. Exactly one week before we know who is the new ruler of Flanders, the tour of Flanders.

 

Rather than writing how great or boring a race was, here's my prediction for "De Ronde Van Vlaanderen". In this year's classic races we've seen a little bit of everything. The big guns are ready: Sagan, Cancellara, Boonen, Vanmarcke, Van Avermaet. Their lieutenants are in form as well: Terpstra, Stybar, Devolder to name a few. However, one guy sticks out above them. He is the clear favorite: Fabian Cancellara.

"He's too strong. He's just too strong", Wilfried Peeters stated in 2011 when Fabian took off with more than 60 kilometers to go. Ultimately he did not win that year due to lack of food and fluids, a mistake he won't make twice. He was also very strong in 2012, but unfortunately had to abandon the race with a broken collarbone. And of course, he won in 2013.

How could he be beaten? Barring any crashes or mechanical defects, there are few scenarios in which other mice can steal the cheese.

1. When the race is decided in a sprint with Sagan and Boonen. This is an unlikely scenario as I doubt either of them will be able to stay with Cancellara when he turns on his turbo on the climbs. 
2. When Devolder is able to break away and stay in front, ahead of Cancellara. Devolder has won de ronde already twice and definitely can win it again. It will be a very difficult decision for the Trek team to allow Cancellara go after his team mate.

Update: While I believe Cancellara has the best chances, I am rooting for Boonen, and Van Marcke.

The majestic E3 Harelbeke classic

Today's E3 Harelbeke race was truly Belgian classic worthy. The new race layout makes this the little brother of the Ronde Van Vlaanderen (next week). Thus far the classic and semi classic season has been pleasant, but nothing like today's race. Omloop het Nieuwsblad lacked the big battle throughout. Brussel-Kuurne-Brussel at least had a big name winner, Tom Boonen. Strade Bianche provides for wonderful scenery, but lacked drama and mano-a-mano battle among the big guns, except at the very end in the streets of Siena.

The last 80 kilometers of the E3 Harelbeke classic provided a little bit of everything. The crashes on the small windy roads provided the initial drama. The race broke open right before the Paterberg. You had a bunch of big guns attacking in the front, while Cancellera was fighting his way back in the background, racing from group to group to rejoin the front. Boonen, Van Marcke and Van Avermaet only showed up from time to time in the second row. As the final four were racing to the finish line, Terpstra and Vanderbergh kept making it hard on Sagan with continuous attacks. Wonderful to watch. And at the end, Peter Sagan was the great winner.

If this is a precursor to next weekend, it will be fun.