Nobel Belgians

A colleague of mine is very skeptical about global warming and believes humans have little effect on the warming of the globe. So when Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Peace Price, I knew he would drop by for a little chat. What does Al Gore and co have to do with fostering peace? "It's all political", he said. We decided to look up the list of previous Nobel Peace Prize laureates. Indeed you wonder why some did earn the price.

I was surprised to see four five Belgians on the list. Although most of them won in a by gone era, when Europe was the center of the world and when Belgium was a little more relevant in the world.

• 1904 : Institut de Droit International
• 1909 : Auguste Marie François Beernaert, Member of the Cour Internationale d'Arbitrage.
• 1913 : Henri La Fontaine, President of the Permanent International Peace Bureau.
• 1958 : Georges Pire, leader of L'Europe du Coeur au Service du Monde, a relief organization for refugees.
• 1999: Artsen zonder grenzen (Medecins Sans Frontieres) (Wikipedia incorrectly listed them as French/Swiss, although Nobel organization lists them as Belgian)
  

Here's a chart of the number of Nobel Peace price laureates by country. (It is not perfect since e.g. Mother Teresa gives both Albania and India a point.)

Disco in my pants

Halloween, celebrated on the night of October 31th, is always a big deal in the United States. I hear it has become a big deal even in Belgium.

The term Halloween (and its older rendering Hallowe'en) is shortened from All-hallow-even, as it is the evening of/before "All Hallows' Day", also known as "All Saints' Day". ... On Halloween night adults and children dress up as creatures from the underworld (e.g., ghosts, ghouls, zombies, witches and goblins), light bonfires, and enjoy spectacular fireworks displays (despite the fact that such displays are usually illegal). Halloween was perceived as the night during which the division between the world of the living and the otherworld was blurred so spirits of the dead and inhabitants from the underworld were able to walk free on the earth. It was necessary to dress as a spirit or otherworldly creature when venturing outdoors to blend in. The children knock on the neighbors' doors, in order to gather fruit, nuts, and sweets for the Halloween festival. Salt was once sprinkled in the hair of the children to protect against evil spirits. (Wikipedia)

Last year, I missed the company Halloween party as I was on a business trip. However, I helped build on our Disco Scarecrow. Disco shoes $5; a John Travolta suit ($19), a disco ball for his head ($19); a wig, some materials from Osh, a stroboscope in his pants ($25). Kicking marketing and core engineering's butt while having fun with your services teammates ... priceless.

A milestone

(picture by Leo Reynolds)

August 27, 2004 was the beginning of my blog. Since then I tried to post regularly, often once a week, sometimes once or twice a month. My goal was to focus on creating new content and start writing in English. I did not want my blog to be a check-out-this-link listing. This is blog post number 100.

For a while I also posted in the "Carnivals". Carnivals are organized by bloggers: on a given topic (e.g. frugality), the frugal carnival is posted each time on a new blog. The post is list of blog posts on different blogs discussing frugality. The next month, the carnival moves to another blog. It is a great traffic source.

I use Google Analytics to track readership. I do not have the readership nor run my own server to warrant scripts like used in the wide finder project. A couple of tidbits:

• I do have readers from all over the world, with the US in first place and Belgium in second place, and a couple of readers from Australia, Canada and several countries in Europe.
• Firefox represents fifty percent of the browsers visiting my blog. Internet explorer takes 35%. I even had visitors using Opera and Portable Playstation.
  
• Top content includes: Home is where the tank is parked (probably because it was cross posted by various carinvals); Farewell Luis Rest in Peace; Netbeans CND; Lake Wobegon (Not all content is included as the early content (2004) was not part of the tracking.)
  
• Google and Google blog search is the top referred; though LinkedIn ranks higher than technorati. Interesting. Also the blog of my dad refers a steady stream of readers.
  

flanders.california.usa ... ongoing

What were the English thinking?

I overheard my dad explaining my 5 year old son how the scoring works in tennis. It was the US Open tournament and Belgian's Justine Henin was in the final. "Love" is "zero". You increase from "fifteen," to "thirty," and then (not forty-five, but) "forty". Then you switch between "deuce" and advantage". What were the English thinking? The scoring in soccer was so simple. Where did the scoring system used in tennis come from. I had to look it up.

Although the origin of "love" as a "zero" score is often heard of as representing the French word l'œuf (meaning 'egg') due to the similarity in shape between an egg and a zero, it is more plausible that it originated from the phrase 'to play for love' (of the game). The origins of the fifteen, thirty, forty scores are somewhat unclear - one common explanation is that the scoring system was copied from the game sphairistike, which was played by British officers in India during the 19th century. That game's scoring system was based on the different gun calibres of the British naval ships. When firing a salute, the ships first fired their 15-pound guns on the main deck, followed by the 30-pound guns of the middle deck, and finally by the 40-pound lower gun deck.

The scoring system is also sometimes said to have medieval and French roots. A clock face was used on court, with a quarter move of the hand to indicate a score of fifteen, thirty, and forty-five. When the hand moved to sixty, the game was over. Previously, tennis had a scoring system like table tennis or "ping pong". This explanation seems unlikely since Medieval France predates the advent of mechanical clocks, with sundials being the chronometer of choice at the time.

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_score

Argentinean Tidsbits

While on vacation in Argentina, I kept track of a couple of tidbits. Did you know?

• Buenos Aires counts over 58,000 taxis, all colored black with a yellow top? (I recently observed City Taxi in San Jose, with the same color scheme.)
  
• It hadn't snowed in Buenos Aires since 1918. People were going nuts for the little white things coming from the sky. It might get cold in winter, but snow is extremely rare. Traffic stopped. The long distance buses did not leave a day or two. Especially not in the direction we were heading.
  
• Soccer wunderkind Lionel Messi plays with number 18 in the Argentinean selection. Official kid-size t-shirts go for about 150 pesos or $50. I could however buy a black market shirt for about 40 pesos. The only gotcha, it has the name Messi on the back and number 19.
  
• Es lo que hay - That's what it is. Although inflation is under control for many years now, one can still run into shortages occasionally. On our trip, we ran into laundromats closed because of a shortage in water, a shortage of milk and closed gas stations. Because of speculation with natural gas, drivers switched from running the engine on natural gas to gasoline causing a temporary shortage. One could only gas up 20 pesos worth of gasoline.
  

Thieves

It is the call you do not want to receive: "Hello, this is officer Gretzky, I am in your house. Your house has been burglarized. Please come to your house." It was 2pm in the afternoon.

On my way home, I went over the set of items of value in our house. Luckily the list is rather small. And after today I plan to keep it that way. (It has been on my to-do list for a while to make an inventory sheet with serial numbers.)

I wondered why the police was already in my house. How did they know there was a burglary? How did they even get my cellphone number? The first answer popped immediately into my head: Jim! No burglary alarm can replace vigilant neighbors. I am lucky, very lucky, to have a retired neighbor across the street who loves to smoke a cigarette outside in front, while he talks with his cats. The answer to the second question became clear later on: the list of contact numbers we keep on the fridge for the baby sit.

It is weird to see close to ten police cars in front of your house. And they never park neatly. Apparently, there had been close to 15 cars in the street when the burglary happened. Four officers were combing through my house, taking pictures and fingerprints. A couple others were taking statements from people in the street.

Luckily they caught the @#$%#$@$ards. Two of them. A third was in a car on the look out and evaded capture. It was all thanks to a quick call from Jim. He noticed two people who did not belong in our neighborhood, and especially not walking up to our house. A big black gang banger with a T-shirt to his knees, and another fella, which Jim couldn't describe very well. They were hanging around the place for a while, rang the bell and then went to the side of the house. A look-out car stopped in front. The cops apparently were here very quickly. First an officer on his bicycle. Then many many police cars and officer with guns drawn running behind the thieves.

Our stuff is almost all recovered as the big bags were left when the cops were hot on their tales. There are a couple of items missing and we are still checking which other items might be missing. The fence was broken down as the apparently fat burglar wasn't able to jump it, and thus ran straight through it. He broke a few more fences down his path.

The list of items which were removed from the house show these guys were out to make a quick buck. Beyond the obvious items (necklaces, digital camera, etc.), they even took

• My son's piggy bank (why carry all those pennies and quarters?)
• Toy walky-talkies (range: 5 meters)
• DVDs: a spindle of empty DVD-R and a collection of Pixar DVDs.
• 24/7 timer (which they needed to disconnect from the lamp)
• two big traveling bags (to carry the loot)

We were very lucky. Great response from the police force. And especially thanks to Jim!

The carpool lane

One of my early blog posts was a plea for California sponsored road safety infomercials. Simple things make a difference on the roads. We, in the Bay Area, can learn a thing or two about traffic efficiency from the South.

• Take for example the carpool lane, officially called High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane. Typically one needs to have 2 or more people in the car to ride int he carpool lane. A lot of rubber necking starts when cars from the carpool lane need to cross over to take an exit. Building a HOV specific off-ramp overpass does pay off. Such changes to the high way 101-85 merge in Mountain View solved a lot problems. On the other hand, the 101 South commute through San Jose is hampered by two merges: 101-87 and 101-880. In both cases, car pool riders need to cross all lanes to take the exit.
  
• Weaving in and out of the carpool can be avoided by creating small separators between the lanes. Highway 5 near Rancho Bernardo is a great example of how traffic flow is encouraged by limiting when people can get in and out of the HOV lane.
  
• In the Bay Area, the HOV lane rules apply between 6-9am and 3-7pm. A look outside my office shows that the traffic continues well beyond 9am, and starts as early as 1-2pm. Reward commuters by making the HOV lanes 24/7. (LA Times: Car pool lane revolution)
  
• Traffic lights regulating the inflow to the freeway is a great idea. However, in the Bay Area, only one car is allowed to advance per green light. In San Diego, the traffic flow is smoother and stop and go traffic is reduced by allowing 2 or 3 cars to enter the high way per green light.

Common Sense Index Funds

The message of The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, by John Bogle is simple: Buy index funds and you'll do better than most investors. Yet the book counts 214 pages. Each chapter almost reads like a FAQ (frequently asked question). When it comes to investing, at the end, it all comes down to a single number: how much is left over.

"It may not be as exciting, but owning the classic stock market fund is the ultimate strategy. It holds the mathematical certainty that marks it as the gold standard in investing, for try as they might, the alchemists of active management cannot turn that own lead, copper or iron into gold. Just avoid complexity, rely on simplicity, take costs out of the equation, and trust the arithmetic."

"Remember, O stranger, arithmetic is the first of the sciences and the mother of safety." (Louis D. Brandeis, 1914)

"The two greatest enemies of the equity investor are expenses and emotions"

The lessons in the book are clear:

rule 1: Own businesses; don't speculate on emotions

• Total investment returns - the gains made by businesses - were remarkably steady: 8 - 13% each year and averaging 9.5%.
• The speculative return has added just 0.1% to the annual investment return.
  

rule 2: Own all businesses (best risk reducing strategy)
Don't look for the needle. Buy the hay stack.

• Only 3 out of 355 equity funds (since 1970), or 8/10 of 1%, have survived and mounted a record of sustained excellent.
• During the 39 year period (1968 to 2006) the S&P500 index fell into the bottom quartile of large cap core funds, in only 2 years and has not done so since 1979. The index has outpaced the average fund in 26 of the 35 years, including 11 of the past years.
  

rule 3: gross market return - costs = net return for the investor. Costs matter: compounding costs will eat your lunch and dinner
The "all-in" cost of equity fund ownership can come to as much as 3-3.5%/year. This includes the expense ratio, sale charges and initial sale charge. Compounding over 50 years, the investor who puts up 100% of the capital and assumes 100% of the risk, earned only 31% of the market return.
For 1980 - 2005:

• S&P returned 12.5%/yr; $10,000 will grow to $170,800 before inflation (3.3%/yr); after inflation: $76,200.
  
• Average Fund returned 10%/yr; $10,000 will grow to $98,200 before inflation (3.3%/yr); after inflation: $40,600
  
• The impact of compounding costs over 25 years is a difference of 53%!
  

rule 4: gross market - costs - market timing and selection penalties = net return earned by mutual fund investors
There is a investment time lag which costs investors dearly. When you calculate it out, the $10,000K investment will grow to:

• S&P invested: $76,200 (after inflation)
  
• Average Fund: $16,700 (after inflation)
• The impact of costs, counter productive market timing and selection penalties over 25 years is enormous: 22%! of what could have been if invested in an index fund.

rule 5: taxes are costs too. High turn over = taxes
Continuing the calculation:

• S&P invested: 12.3% return - 0.6% (tax cost) - 3.3% (inflation) = 8.4%; $10,000 grows to $65,000.
  
• Average fund: 10.0% return - 1.8% (tax cost) - 3.3% (inflation) = 4.9%; $10,000 grows to $23,100
• Again the impact is substantial when compounded over many years.
  

So, this brings us to a simple summary: Bogle recommendations

1. Serious money account = 95%
   Funny money account = 5%
2. Invest serious money account 100% in index funds
1. <>
2. 85% S&P index
3. 5% small cap index
4. 10% value index
5. short term bond fund
6. inflation linked bonds
3. Invest funny money (experiment)
   
1. some in stock
2. some in mutual funds
3. commodity funds
4. Avoid other funancial constructs
4. Asset allocation: bond % == your age or (age -10) %
   

Unclutter

Unclutterer.com is on my list of favorite blogs to read. For the last month we have been uncluttering our house and most importantly our garage. We had "inherited" numerous items from our friends who moved back to Belgium. Last weekend I took inventory of our regular drinking glasses. This does not include wine glasses or shot glasses. The picture on the left is exhibit A. No wonder our cupboards were full. We uncluttered to a simple set of glasses. We also kept the specialty beer glasses, such as a set of six Duvel beer glasses.

Buenos Aires, city of the thin

People in Buenos Aires always look in great shape. Women are obsessed by their looks (even more so than in many other places). But also men are in great shape (regardless of the amount of beef, beers, empanadas or media lunas consumed). I am impressed about the amount of sports done in this big city:

• Soccer is everything in Argentina. In the parks of Buenos Aires, or on any patch of green, you'll find many impromptu games of soccer. Soccer is everywhere. Day and night.
  
• Dogwalkers keep in shape by walking 10, 20 or 30 dogs at once.
  
• I have not heard of any famous cyclist from Argentina (except for Rebellin exchanging his Italian passport for a dark blue Argentinean one) in order to participate in the Olympic Games. However, on the route from the airport to down town, in the cold of mid winter, we encountered many cyclists on the freeway to the airport (Sunday 10am). They all were in great shiny outfits of the major European teams.
• Jogging along Avenida Libertador
  
• Rugby is very popular, although I did not see any game or people playing it.
  
• Tennis is gaining strong in popularity, thanks to a group of excellent male players, including Nalbandian.
  
• During the winter, I noticed a fair amount of people with squash rackets.
  
• Polo, although more a game for the rich and famous.